| Political Leaders:
Who’s Climbing to the Top ?
India has witnessed unprecedented political churning since 1987, the year
when the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress government got embroiled in the Bofors scandal, and
many more new political faces have emerged in these last ten years than in all the
preceding 40 years put together. For instance, Mulayam Singh (current Defense
Minister) was then an unknown provincial legislator, Mayawati (current chief minister of
Uttar Pradesh) was just an ordinary school teacher , and IK Gujral (current Prime
Minister) was not even active in politics. All of this has left most foreign investors
quite confused: they just do not know which political actors to track or with whom to
develop contacts. While the current spate of volatility is likely to continue in the short
to medium term, we believe that certain pre-requisite traits are going to be needed by
Indian politicians for long term success. These include popularity with grass-roots
party cadres, importance within the party either as vote-catcher or deal maker,
ability to get along with others, boldness of action, and ease in front of the electronic
media.
So just who will be
important 10 years from now ? We take a look at the next generation of politicians,
and offer our prediction on the key leaders in early part of the twenty-first century
along with their likely attitude towards reforms/foreign investors.
SUSHMA SWARAJ (BJP): She started as a
student leader in the 70’s, campaigned vigorously against the Indira Gandhi-led
Congress regime, and went on to become the youngest minister in India during the Janata
Party government in the northern state of Haryana. She joined the BJP in 1980 and, though
she is a relative newcomer to BJP, her influence within the party has grown rapidly due to
her loyalty to party philosophy, organizational ability, parliamentary skills and gender
(Swaraj is the leading woman leader of the BJP). She has been a member of the parliament
since 1991 and won the prestigious South Delhi constituency in 1996 in a tough contest.
She is well charismatic, highly articulate, has great television presence and manages to
keep a sense of quiet dignity even in the most adversarial circumstances. On the other
hand she sometimes displays a very self righteous and narrow social view, and is a leading
critic of "Western invasion" of Indian culture. Coming from an urban middle
class background she is likely to favour internal reformist measures such as public sector
privatization, greater spending on infrastructure and healthcare..etc but is also likely
to oppose unrestricted access to MNCs in consumer goods and entertainment industry. Though
she readily meets visitors she also has firm ideological underpinnings which will make her
unswayed by lobbying and persuasion.
PRAMOD MAHAJAN (BJP): He was initiated into the RSS (the socio-religious umbrella
group of the Hindu nationalists) at a very young age and now, ironically, represents the
modern face of the orthodox organization. He was an important leader of the student wing
of the BJP and has risen rapidly within the party on account of his proximity with party
cadres, organizational skills and fund-raising ability. He has good ties with many Indian
industrialists and political leaders, and is the chief architect of the BJP-Shiv Sena
coalition government in Maharashtra. Mahajan is an extremely skilled orator, very
knowledgeable about other countries, pragmatic, confident and sharp. He is opposed to the
controversial swadeshi view --which supports local industry over foreign investors
-- of one faction of the BJP but he is unlikely to become a crusader for business
interests, either domestic or foreign. Mahajan is tipped to be the BJP’s president
some day and is perhaps one of the most important leaders of tomorrow. He heads (or is a
member of) important parliamentary committees and, at a minimum, will play a key role in
legislative changes required for investor-friendly policies and laws. Mahajan is one of
the most open and accessible BJP leaders, and is known to be pliable to lobbying as long
as the right buttons are pressed.
RAJESH PILOT (Congress): He is a backward class leader with peasant roots in north
India and is equally acceptable to both rural and urban voters. He was earlier a part of
the young brigade promoted by Rajiv Gandhi but has slowly moved away from his dependency
on the Gandhi family and is carving out his own political following. He earned high marks
as the junior interior minister in the Rao government where he displayed a capacity for
individual initiative in tough situations. He is one of the few Congress politicians with
a clean image, has good relations with other political parties, is young and ambitious,
and is slowly positioning himself to assume leadership of the Congress party in the
future. He is likely to play an important role in future coalition governments. His
position on economic issues is currently ambiguous (like most Congress politicians) and
his tendency to seize political opportunities makes him even more unpredictable: he will
oppose or support economic policies to suit shifting public opinion.
MARGARET ALVA (Congress): Alva was given her first break in politics in 1974
when Indira Gandhi got her elected to the Rajya Sabha (upper house of Parliament) and then
made her a key member of the Indian delegation to the UN summit during the International
Women’s Year. She has been a member of the Rajya Sabha since then without a break.
Though not a political heavyweight, she has assiduously cultivated important political
leaders and is generally liked by both political supporters and opponents. She is likely
to remain important within the Congress party for the multiple "minority"
advantages she brings: Christian, woman and from the South. She has carved her own niche
by championing liberal social causes, such as women, education and environment, and has
strong links with media, activists and intellectuals (her sons are well known producers of
an award winning TV series). Alva is sophisticated and charming, and very much a part of
the Delhi cocktail circuit, but her advocacy of social issues puts her in natural
opposition to many MNC-friendly policies. She is likely to be a champion of
‘restrained’ liberalization.
A K ANTHONY (Congress): He started out as a student leader in the late 1960s
in Kerala, was the first Congress leader to take the communists head on, and was
instrumental in reviving the Congress in a Left-ruled state. He is immensely popular in
Kerala and, having already been chief minister once, is now likely to play an important
rile at the center. He is the most honest Congress leader today and is half-jokingly known
as "St. Anthony" for his austere lifestyle and refusal to dish out favours to
friends. But it is precisely for this reason that he is poised to emerge as a key Congress
leader who will shape the policies of the party in the future. Anthony represents that
section within Congress that is skeptical of supporting a centrist coalition without
demanding a price in terms of participation and adequate representation in government.
Since his main adversary (in his home state) are the communists he has to per force
ideologically strike a liberal posture, and is likely to support the speeding up of
economic liberalization. He is however a very laid-back administrator and a slow decision
maker, and this could negate some of his investor-friendly pronouncements.
NITISH KUMAR (Samata Party): He started his political career as student
leader in the mid 1970s, became a member of parliament for the first time in 1989 and has
now become one of the most important anti-Congress politicians in the state of Bihar. He
was a key player during the early 90s in the aggressive struggle for political power by
the backward classes of northern India, but broke away from the Janata Dal in 1994 to form
the Samata Party (which is now allied with the BJP). He continues to be a very popular
leader in Bihar and is tipped to be its future chief minister. Though he is not very
sophisticated he is also sharp, articulate and patient. Being a left-leaning socialist he
is more concerned with issues of social justice rather than economic policy, and is likely
to be neutral towards foreign investors as long as his support base of lower castes is not
affected.
RAM VILAS PASWAN (Janata Dal): He created history in 1977 when he became the
youngest member of parliament in India, and yet again when he won the parliamentary
elections in 1989 with the highest victory margin ever in the world. He is one of the most
popular low caste Hindu leaders of his generation and, with the balance of power slowly
shifting away from upper caste groups, will very likely be a candidate for the Prime
Minister at some point in the future. Unlike many of his other colleagues Paswan is soft
and well-mannered in dealing with people and makes it a point not to antagonize anybody.
He is thus more acceptable to upper caste groups than any other low caste leader. He
exhibits great patience in difficult times, has built a good rapport with leftist
intellectuals and is becoming increasingly media savvy. His socialist background makes him
lukewarm towards foreign investors, but he can be influenced. He is known
to be particularly heedful of his supporters from Bihar for whom he is known to have
pressed many buttons in the corridors of power.
MULAYAM SINGH YADAV (SP): He
started out as a ruthless village level politician in Uttar Pradesh and, within fifteen
years of meteoric political rise, has now become the defense minister of the country. He
consolidated his anti-BJP support base among Muslims and medium caste Hindus during an
earlier tenure as the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, and has somewhat expanded his
appeal by diluting his previous combative style of politics. He has good relations with
most political parties, except the BJP and the BSP for whom he remains an anathema. Though
his influence is limited to UP he will continue to be important in national politics
because 1) he is one of the few leaders who can stop the BJP’s domination of the
northern Hindi heartland, and 2) his support base is strong enough to guarantee him a
significant parliamentary strength for post-election bargaining in any centrist coalition.
Yadav is close to power brokers and is accessible to lobbyists.
CHANDRA BABU NAIDU (TDP): He entered politics in his late twenties and
became a junior minister in a Congress-led government in the state of Andhra Pradesh. He
switched allegiance to the Telegu Desam party in the mid-1980s after marrying the daughter
of NT Rama Rao (founder of Telegu Desam) and went on to become the second in command to
NTR. He however fell out with NTR in 1995 and led a "palace coup" to replace NTR
as the chief minister. He has since then consolidated his hold in the state, and has risen
to national prominence because of his key role in the fractured United Front. He has
strong ties with Left parties, remains suspicious of the Janata Dal (which had refused to
support him earlier in his fight against NTR’s political faction) and is easily the
most promising politician from southern India. He is an excellent party manager,
pragmatist (he revoked prohibition in Andhra Pradesh) and liberal on economic issues. He
is likely to be a tough negotiator but also a supporter of greater reforms and
investor-friendly policies. Naidu could perhaps be the MNCs’ best friend in the new
disposition.
SITARAM YECHURY (CPI-M): It may surprise foreign investors to know that
unlike in Eastern Europe the Communist movement in India remains popular (though strong
only in certain pockets), even if only as moral and mediating role in the fractured and
corrupt politics of the country. Yechury represents the new leadership of the Left parties
which, unlike older generations, is neither dogmatic nor militant in their thinking. He
entered the Communist Party of India (Marxists) during his student days and was a leader
of the CPI-M’s students wing. He was elevated to the party politburo in 1992, the
youngest member ever, and is now one of its main public spokesmen. His Andhra origin makes
acceptable to both the West Bengal and Kerala factions which are in a tussle for party
leadership. Though he is articulate and suave, and can cross comfortably from protest
marches to the cocktail circuit, Yechury will continue to oppose economic reforms and
foreign investment if they are seen as a threat to the Communists’ main constituency:
industrial workers. He is however close to many writers, editors and journalists who can
be helpful to foreign investors in informally gauging his possible reflexes. |
